Model:

последнее обновление:

hourly to monthly from 1980 to last month

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 15:00 MSK

Resolution:

0.5° x 0.65°

параметер:

CAPE and vertical velocity at 700 hPa

Description:

The Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled convectively available potential energy. CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy (J/kg) available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work a parcel does on the environment. The higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to foster storm growth. The potential energy can be converted to kinetic energy reflected in upward motion.
It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly. Higher CAPE typically involves stronger storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. Note that CAPE is usually of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes. The probability of large hail increases with CAPE, given at least moderate shear(values around 500-1000 J/kg are sufficient).
CAPE is very sensitive to small differences in the moisture and temperature profiles. While the maps indicate 1000 J/kg CAPE at some location, a skew-T thermodynamic diagram at that location may indicate 500-1500 J/kg. (Source: The Lightning Wizard)
Table 1: Characteristic values for CAPE

CAPE value	Convective potential
0	Stable
0-1000	Marginally Unstable
1000-2500	Moderately Unstable
2500-3500	Very Unstable
3500 +	Extremely Unstable

MERRA:

The MERRA time period covers the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present, and the special focus of the atmospheric assimilation is the hydrological cycle. Previous long-term reanalyses of the Earth's climate had high levels of uncertainty in precipitation and inter-annual variability. The GEOS-5 data assimilation system used for MERRA implements Incremental Analysis Updates (IAU) to slowly adjust the model states toward the observed state. The water cycle benefits as unrealistic spin down is minimized. In addition, the model physical parameterizations have been tested and evaluated in a data assimilation context, which also reduces the shock of adjusting the model system. Land surface processes are modeled with the state-of-the-art GEOS-5 Catchment hydrology land surface model. MERRA thus makes significant advances in the representation of the water cycle in reanalyses.

Reanalyse:

Retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate a variety of observing systems with numerical models to produce a temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of observations and analyses of variables not easily observed. The breadth of variables, as well as observational influence, make reanalyses ideal for investigating climate variability. The Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications supports NASA's Earth science objectives, by applying the state-of-the-art GEOS-5 data assimilation system that includes many modern observing systems (such as EOS) in a climate framework.