<div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Model:</div>
  <div class="eI2"><h2><a href="http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/" target="_blank" target="_blank">NCMRWF</a>(National  Centre  for  Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasting from India)</h2></div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Updated:</div>
  <div class="eI2">1 times per day, from 00:00 UTC</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Greenwich Mean Time:</div>
  <div class="eI2">12:00 UTC = 17:00 IST</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Resolution:</div>
  <div class="eI2">0.125&deg; x 0.125&deg; (India, South Asia)</div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Parameter:</div>
  <div class="eI2">CAPE and vertical velocity at 700 hPa</div>
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 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">Description:</div>
  <div class="eI2">
The Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) map - updated every 6 hours - shows the modelled convectively available 
potential energy. CAPE represents the amount of buoyant energy (J/kg) available to accelerate a parcel vertically, or the amount of work 
a parcel does on the environment. The higher the CAPE value, the more energy available to foster storm growth. The
potential energy can be converted to kinetic energy reflected in upward motion.
<BR>
It should be remembered that CAPE represents potential energy, and will only be used should a parcel be lifted to the level of free convection. 
When values are above 3500 j/kg and storms do develop, they may build rapidly and quickly become severe. 
Often these storms are referred to as "explosive storms" by chasers and professionals. In a high CAPE environment 
storms that develop can usually be seen by the human eye as rising rapidly.
Higher CAPE typically involves stronger storms with a higher chance of large hail and other severe weather. Note that
CAPE is usually of lesser importance than the vertical shear environment for tornadoes. The probability of large hail increases 
with CAPE, given at least moderate shear(values around 500-1000 J/kg are sufficient). 
<BR>
CAPE is very sensitive to small differences in the moisture and temperature profiles. While the maps indicate
1000 J/kg CAPE at some location, a <a href="/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=nz&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=temps&MODELLTYP=4&BASE=-&VAR=temps&LKEY=UK&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&SHOW=1">skew-T thermodynamic diagram</a> at that location may indicate 500-1500 J/kg.
(Source: <a href="http://www.lightningwizard.com" target="_blank">The Lightning Wizard</a>)
<BR>
Table 1: Characteristic values for CAPE<BR>
<TABLE border=1>
<TR>
   <TD><STRONG>CAPE value</STRONG></TD>

   <TD><STRONG>Convective potential</STRONG></TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>0 </TD>
   <TD>Stable</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>0-1000</TD>
   <TD>Marginally Unstable</TD>

</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>1000-2500</TD>
   <TD>Moderately Unstable</TD>
</TR>
<TR>
   <TD>2500-3500</TD>
   <TD>Very Unstable</TD>
</TR>

<TR>
	<TD> 3500 + </TD>
	<TD> Extremely Unstable </TD>
<TR>
</TABLE> 

    
  </div>
 </div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">NCMRWF:</div>
  <div class="eI2"><a href="http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/" target="_blank">NCMRWF</a> <br>
This modeling system is an up-graded version of NCEP GFS (as per 28 July 2010). A general description of the modeling system can be found in the following link:<br>
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t254-model/t254_des.pdf<br>
An brief overview of GFS is given below. <br>
------------------------------------------------------ <br>
Dynamics: Spectral, Hybrid sigma-p, Reduced Gaussian grids  <br>
Time integration: Leapfrog/Semi-implicit <br>
Time filter: Asselin <br>
Horizontal diffusion: 8th<br>
 order wavenumber dependent <br>
Orography: Mean orography <br>
Surface fluxes: Monin-obhukov Similarity <br>
Turbulent fluxes: Non-local closure <br>
SW Radiation; RRTM <br>
LW Radiation: RRTM <br>
Deep Convection: SAS <br>
Shallow convection: Mass-flux based <br>
Grid-scale condensation: Zhao Microphysics <br>
Land Surface Processes: NOAH LSM <br>
Cloud generation: Xu and Randal <br>
Rainfall evaporation: Kessler <br>
Air-sea interaction: Roughness length by Charnock <br>
Gravity Wave Drag and mountain blocking: Based on Alpert <br>
Sea-Ice model: Based on Winton <br>
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</div></div>
 <div class="eI0">
  <div class="eI1">NWP:</div>
  <div class="eI2">Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.<br>
<br>Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction</a>(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).<br>
</div></div>
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